The Economist January 10th, 2026
仅供学习使用
外刊观点不代表作者观点,其用途在于英语学习!
关注我解锁更多外刊精读!
Pipeline dreams
制药业研发流程的幻想
Artificial intelligence is transforming the pharma industry for the better
人工智能正在变革制药行业,使其向更好的方向发展
正文部分
DRUG DEVELOPMENT is notoriously failure-prone. Only one in every ten drug candidates that enter human trials eventually goes onto the market. Turning a promising molecule into a useful medicine typically takes ten to 15 years after its discovery. These challenging economics mean that the cost of developing each successful drug is roughly $2.8bn. And because medicines ultimately come off-patent, the drive to find the next blockbuster is relentless.
药物研发是出了名的容易失败。进入人体试验的候选药物中,每十个中只有一个最终能上市。将一个有前景的分子转化为有用的药物,自其发现起通常需要10到15年。这些充满挑战的经济学因素意味着,开发每一种成功药物的成本大约是28亿美元。而且因为药物最终会专利到期,所以寻找下一个畅销药的动力是不间断的。
Words & expressions
Pipeline dream:谐音pipe dreams不切实际的幻想;这里指AI为制药业的研发流程带来的新希望
Notoriously:/noʊˈtɔːriəsli/ adv. 众所周知地,声名狼藉地
Failure-prone:adj. 易发生故障的;易失败的
Drug candidates:候选药物
Go onto the market:上市
Come off-patent:专利到期;off-patent adj. 专利保护到期的;非专利的
Blockbuster:n. 一鸣惊人的事物,(尤指)非常成功的书(或电影);这里指“畅销药”
Enter generative AI, which the pharma industry is adopting at a terrific rate. By ingesting and analysing vast biological data sets, AI tools can identify promising target proteins and then suggest novel molecules that could latch onto those drug targets. They can sift through libraries of data to predict the potency and toxicity of candidates, before a single test tube is touched. AI can also help with trials, analysing health records to find the patients most likely to respond to novel treatments. Though it is still early days, the signs are promising. AI could lead to more efficient drug discovery, better medicines and more competition in the industry.
生成式人工智能登场了,制药行业在以惊人的速度采纳它。通过吸收和分析庞大的生物数据集,AI工具可以识别有前景的靶点蛋白,然后提出可以锁定这些药物靶点的新分子。在接触任何一支试管之前,AI就能筛选海量数据来预测候选药物的效力和毒性。AI还可以帮助临床试验,分析健康记录以找到最有可能对新型疗法产生反应的患者。虽然现在AI辅助药物研发仍处于早期阶段,但迹象是令人鼓舞的。AI可能带来更高效的药物研发、更好的药物以及行业内更激烈的竞争。
Words & expressions
At a terrific rate:以惊人的速度
Ingest and analyse:摄取和分析;ingest vt. 摄取;咽下;吸收;接待;这里表示数据吸收
Vast biological data sets:庞大的生物数据集
Latch onto:锁定,附着;抓住,紧紧抓住;理解,领会
Drug targets:药物靶点
Sift through libraries of data:筛选海量数据;sift through细细筛选;libraries of data资料馆,数据库
Potency and toxicity:效力和毒性
Early days:早期阶段
AI-designed molecules show an 80-90% success rate in early-stage safety trials, compared with a historical average of just 40-65%. It will be years before it becomes clear whether success rates rise in later-stage trials, too. But even if they do not, one model suggests that early-stage improvements alone could increase the success rate across the entire pipeline from 5-10% to 9-18%. The industry is also wringing efficiencies out of its business using AI, in areas from clinical documentation to HR. McKinsey reckons that if AI is fully utilised by the pharma industry—no doubt with its consultants' assistance—it could provide a boost worth $60bn-110bn annually.
AI设计的分子在早期安全性试验中显示出80-90%的成功率,而历史平均水平仅为40-65%,而且还需要数年时间才能清楚成功率在后期试验中是否也会提高。但即使不提高,有模型表明,仅早期阶段的改进就能将整个研发管线的成功率从5%-10%提高到9%-18%。制药业还利用AI提升业务效率,涵盖范围从临床文档到人力资源。麦肯锡估计,在其咨询顾问的协助下,如果制药行业充分利用AI,每年可带来600亿至1100亿美元的增长。
Words & expressions
Early-stage safety trials:早期安全性试验
Historyical average:历史平均水平
It will be years before ...:还需要多年才能...
Across the entire pipeline:在整个研发管线/流程中
Wring efficiencies out of:从...中挤出效率;wring vt.拧;绞;紧握;使痛苦;折磨;vi.蠕动;扭动;感到痛苦;感到苦恼;n. 拧;绞;挤;扭动
Clinical documentation:临床文件工作
Provide a boost worth XX:提供价值...的增长/提振
The hope is that improvements in the technology will push up the success rate even further. Sophisticated new models for understanding tricky bits of biology are emerging at a rapid pace. A few years ago an AI model called AlphaFold solved the problem of figuring outthe structure of proteins. More complex puzzles, such as how cell membranes function, are likely to be cracked at some point.
人们希望技术的进步能进一步提高成功率。用于理解生物学复杂环节的精密新模型正在迅速涌现。几年前,一个名为AlphaFold的AI模型解决了确定蛋白质结构的问题。更复杂的难题,例如细胞膜如何运作,很可能在未来某个时候被攻克。
Words & expressions
Push up:推高;突出,突起;push up the success rate提高成功率
Sophisticated new models:精密的新模型
Tricky bits of:…的复杂环节;bit部分
Emerge at a rapid pace:迅速涌现
Figure out:解决,弄清楚
Crack:v. 攻克,破解
At some point:在某个时间点/某一时刻
The technology is already changing how the pharma industry works. A new generation of AI-native biotech startups—particularly in America and China—is emerging. Pharma companies are increasingly forming alliances with AI-biotech firms, as well as with technology giants including Amazon, Google, Microsoft and Nvidia. And those big tech firms have their own ambitions in health. Isomorphic Labs, a spin-out from Google DeepMind, is trying to design entirely new therapeutic molecules from scratch inside a computer. Nvidia, too, has a generative-AI platform for drug discovery. Both firms are signing deals to offer design services to pharma companies. And in October Nvidia teamed up with Eli Lilly, the world's most valuable drugmaker, to build the pharma industry’s most powerful supercomputer.
这项技术已经在改变制药行业的运作方式。尤其是在美国和中国的新一代原生于AI的生物技术初创公司正在兴起。制药公司逐渐与AI生物技术公司以及包括亚马逊、谷歌、微软和英伟达在内的科技巨头结成联盟。而这些大型科技公司自身在健康领域也有雄心壮志。从谷歌DeepMind分拆出来的Isomorphic Labs,正试图在计算机内从零开始设计全新的治疗分子。英伟达也有一个用于药物研发的生成式AI平台。两家公司都在签署协议,向制药公司提供设计服务。去年十月,英伟达与全球市值最高的制药公司礼来合作,建造了制药行业最强大的超级计算机。
Words & expressions
AI-native biotech startups:原生于AI的生物技术初创公司
Form alliances with:与...结成联盟
Spin-out:分拆公司,从母公司独立出来的公司
Therapeutic:/ˌθerəˈpjuːtɪk/ adj. 治疗的,有疗效的;使人镇静的,使人放松的;治疗学的
From scratch:从零开始
Team up with:与...合作
All this means that some of the value of drug discovery may be captured by tech giants. For now, pharma firms have many clear advantages, including heaps of data, scientists who know the field and long experience of shepherding new drugs through a maze of regulation. Over time, though, as parts of biology become more of a computational problem that can be solved with technology, such advantages could be eroded. Pharma firms may need to buy in AI expertise in the same way that they buy early-stage assets from biotech firms today.
这些都意味着,药物研发的部分价值可能会被科技巨头攫取。目前,制药公司仍拥有许多明显的优势,包括海量数据、了解该领域的科学家以及引导新药通过复杂监管的长期经验。然而,随着时间的推移,随着生物学计算问题可以逐渐通过技术解决,这些优势可能会被削弱。制药公司可能需要以如今从生物技术公司购买早期资产的方式,来购入AI专业知识。
Words & expressions
Be captured by:被...攫取/获得
Heaps of data:海量数据;heaps of一大推,大量,很多,许多
Shepherd ... through a maze of regulation:引导...通过监管迷宫;
shepherd /ˈʃepərd/ n. 牧羊人;牧师;德国牧羊犬;v. 牧(羊);带领;(尤指精神方面)给……指导;
maze /meɪz/ n. 迷宫;走迷宫(一种儿童游戏);错综复杂的事物;纵横交错的小街(或小道等);迷惑,糊涂;v. 使发昏,使迷惑
Buy in:购入,买进
Early-stage assets:早期资产,指处于研发早期的候选药物
As drug discovery becomes more efficient, governments will need to turn their attention to other potential bottlenecks in the system, such as regulation and trials. America's Food and Drug Administration and the European Medicines Agency are themselves starting to use AI to screen the mountains of data they receive. As the number of drug candidates rises, faster regulatory reviews will be needed to avoid a logjam. Governments could also do more to encourage the sharing of patient data with AI companies in privacy-preserving ways so that AI models—and drug discovery—can improve.
随着药物研发变得更加高效,政府需要将注意力转向系统中的其他潜在瓶颈,例如监管和试验。美国食品药品监督管理局和欧洲药品管理局已开始使用AI来审查它们接收到的海量数据。随着候选药物数量的增加,将需要更快的监管审查以避免堵塞。政府还可以做更多工作,以保护隐私的方式鼓励与AI公司共享患者数据,这样AI模型以及药物发现才能得到改进。
Words & expressions
Turn one’s attention to:将注意力转向
Mountains of data:海量数据
Screen the mountains of data:筛选/审查海量数据;这里的screen类似于上文的sift,都有“筛选”的意思,但screen还有一层“审查”之意
Regulatory reviews:监管审查
Avoid a logjam:避免堵塞;logjam /ˈlɔːɡdʒæm/ n. 僵局;(河道等)受圆木阻塞;停滞状态;拥挤;相当于deadlock /stalemate /impasse /standoff
Privacy-preserving ways:保护隐私的方式
Time to get AI-pilled
Patents, too, will need rethinking. Today, long patent lives let pharma firms recoup the investments they make, encouraging them to undertake the risky business of drug discovery. Yet if the costs and riskiness of innovation fall dramatically, then patent terms (which typically provide 10-15 years of market exclusivity) may need to become shorter. AI brings good news for drug innovation. But to ensure that it benefits both the makers and takers of new drugs, the industry and its regulators will need to adjust to this new reality.
是时候拥抱AI了
专利制度也需要重新思考。如今,漫长的专利有效期让制药公司能够收回其投资,鼓励它们从事高风险的药物研发业务。然而,如果创新的成本和风险大幅下降,那么通常有10-15年的市场独占期的专利期限可能需要缩短。AI为药物创新带来了好消息,但为了确保其能同时惠及新药的制造者和使用者,行业及其监管机构需要适应这一新现实。
Words & expressions
AI-pilled:接受AI“药丸”,源于网络用语“red-pilled”指认清现实
Recoup the investments:收回投资;recoup /rɪˈkuːp/ vt. 收回;恢复;偿还;扣除;vi. 获得补偿;请求扣除
Undertake the risky business:从事高风险业务
Market exclusivity:市场独占权
看到最后可以给我一个关注点赞转发和爱心吗?
点赞关注转发点心后私信“特朗普关税”“夏令时”“关税”等关键词可以领取对应pdf版精读解析哦!
如有不正之处,欢迎指正!(鞠躬)感谢支持!
END
Hey!来都来了!点击下方卡片,关注我呀!
部分往期双语阅读:
外刊精读|全球制造业衰退,为何保护主义救不了制造业?
外刊精读|委内瑞拉事件——特朗普主义奉行的“强权即公理”的强盗逻辑
外刊精读| AI巨头的“烧钱”困境:OpenAI的现金流如何成为行业试金石
外刊精读| “一夜成名”的诅咒:爆款产品的三重陷阱
外刊精读|词汇短语句型汇总(26)
外刊精读| 白酒市场的降温与“反内卷”
外刊精读| 美国财政部如何操控债券市场
外刊精读| 《经济学人》2025年全球经济体排名
外刊精读| 华纳竞购案:Netflix(网飞) VS Paramount(派拉蒙)
外刊精读|词汇短语句型汇总(25)
外刊精读| 微短剧爆红、游戏出海,中国娱乐业蓬勃发展ing(重发版)
外刊精读| AI编织的“完美童年”,是好还是坏?
外刊精读| 美联储主席之争
外刊精读|词汇短语句型汇总(24)
外刊精读| 当AI学会偷懒会发生什么?
外刊精读| AI医疗破局中国“看病难”:机器人医生能否托起老龄化未来?
外刊精读| 芯片之争:谷歌 VS 英伟达
外刊精读| 美国抵押贷款市场萎缩是好事吗?
外刊精读|提高最低工资真能惠及低收入者吗?
外刊精读|词汇短语句型汇总(23)
外刊精读|AI繁荣下的隐忧:AI泡沫若破裂将触发非常规经济衰退
外刊精读|非洲之角战云再起
外刊精读|印度IPO热潮:散户资金构筑增长新基石
外刊精读|猪肾移植破纪录,异种移植迈入临床试验新阶段
外刊精读|词汇短语句型汇总(22)
外刊精读|老年人:屏幕时代的新主角
外刊精读|冰川消融,火山苏醒:全球变暖如何引发连锁反应
外刊精读|美国金融业:高盈利下的隐忧
外刊精读|词汇短语句型汇总(21)
外刊精读|斩断黑产链条:为何必须让网络犯罪无利可图?
外刊精读|高市早苗:日本“重金属”首相登场
外刊精读|全球天才争夺战:为何人类最宝贵的资源正在被白白浪费?
外刊精读|特朗普 VS 美国媒体界:注定失败?
外刊精读|词汇短语句型汇总(20)
外刊精读|尼古丁:有害or有益?
外刊精读|东西融合:阿联酋AI发展之路
外刊精读|美联储的降息困局:政治压力与经济风险的博弈
外刊精读|词汇短语句型汇总(19)
外刊精读|破局低效:如何修复破碎的工作流程?
外刊精读|教育改革:让手机远离课堂
外刊精读|词汇短语句型汇总(18)
外刊精读|全球青年心理健康危机:幸福曲线何以崩塌?
外刊精读|股市的“诡异”上涨:经济低迷中的狂欢能持续多久?
外刊精读|白宫对决美联储:美联储独立性的警报已然拉响