Merck said its “
once-in-a-lifetime
” drug Keytruda could be subject to price reductions under the Inflation Reduction Act, which would lead to a decline in sales. It expects Keytruda to be chosen for “government price setting” in 2026, which would become effective in 2028, according to an SEC
filing
published Tuesday.
But even without the threat of the IRA, key patents protecting the PD-1 inhibitor will start to expire in 2028, after which biosimilar competition could start entering the market. Several Keytruda biosimilars are already in late-stage development, including Samsung Bioepis’ SB27, Amgen’s ABP 234 and Formycon’s FYB206.
Back in 2023, Merck took action against the US government,
filing a lawsuit
with the aim of invalidating the IRA. Its
arguments are similar
to those of Boehringer Ingelheim, which failed in its attempt to challenge the legislation. In 2022, Merck’s CEO Rob Davis said the price negotiations could have a
“chilling” long-term effect
on both Merck and the broader pharma industry because it could disincentivize certain areas of cancer R&D, like developing drugs for smaller indications.
Sales of Keytruda last year climbed 18% to
$29.5 billion
, but it has the potential to make even more, according to Wall Street analysts. It could hit peak sales of $34.3 billion in 2027, according to GlobalData analysts.
The drug
secured
its first US approval in 2014 for advanced melanoma, followed by a flurry of label expansions for various settings of lung cancer, head and neck cancer, bladder cancer, cervical cancer and blood cancers, among other tumor types.
Keytruda wouldn’t be the first Merck medicine subject to IRA negotiations. In January, the Department of Health and Human Services
selected
the diabetes drug Janumet and a version containing extended-release metformin, Janumet XR, for price setting effective from 2027.