Oita University

Researchers from South Korea have built machine learning-based models that can predict mood episodes using only sleep and circadian rhythm data from wearable devices. The team comprised researchers from the Institute for Basic Sciences (IBS), Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), and Korea University College of Medicine. FINDINGS In a study, which findings were published in Nature's npj Digital Medicine journal, the research team first collected and analysed 429 days' worth of sleep-wake data generated from Fitbit of 168 Korean patients with mood disorders, including major depression and bipolar disorders. It is said that mood disorders are closely associated with irregular sleep and circadian rhythms. From this dataset, they extracted 36 sleep and circadian rhythm features, which were then applied to train models based on the machine learning library XGBoost to predict mood episodes. Based on findings, the predictive models achieved 80%, 98%, and 95% accuracy in predicting depressive, manic, and hypomanic episodes, respectively. Findings also suggested that daily changes in circadian rhythm may be a key predictor of mood episodes; delayed circadian rhythms can potentially lead to depressive episodes while advanced circadian rhythms can raise the possibility of manic episodes. WHY IT MATTERS While there already exist AI models for predicting the mood states of people with mood disorders, these typically require various data including sleep, heart rate, light exposure, phone usage, and GPS data, which may be costly to collect. It may also pose security and privacy risks and storage challenges, the research team emphasised. "By developing a model that predicts mood episodes based solely on sleep-wake pattern data, we have reduced the cost of data collection and significantly improved clinical applicability," claimed Kim Jae Kyoung, KAIST associate professor and IBS chief investigator. The research team also point to the potential of complementing the prediction of mood states with the use of digital therapeutics to evaluate the daily risk of mood episode relapse and promote healthy sleep-wake cycles and circadian rhythms by providing reminders. MARKET SNAPSHOT A similar research in Singapore also utilised sleep patterns and circadian rhythms to predict depression risk. The AI-based Ycogni model by a research team from Nanyang Technology University demonstrated 80% accuracy in identifying those at high risk of depression using also sleep-wake data collected from Fitbit. Early this year, research from Japan developed what could be the world's first AI model that can predict Alzheimer's disease using wearables data. Eisai and Oita University collected and analysed a range of biological and lifestyle data to develop a predictive model that can be used as a pre-screening tool for people suspected of having the disease.

A research team at the Korean government-backed Electronics and Telecommunications Research Institute in Daejeon, a city south of Seoul, has developed a predictive AI technology for screening mild cognitive impairment. HOW IT WORKS Developed by combining existing voice and text analysis models with a large language model, the integrated AI analyses recorded conversations of senior people to evaluate their cognitive function and predict their risk of developing dementia. It improves on similar existing AI models, which have been inaccurate in assessing an elder's thinking capabilities due to imprecise pronunciation and dialects, ETRI claimed. A person's speech provides insights that can be used to detect and predict declines in a person's cognitive, language, and speaking functions. The AI reportedly achieved 87.3% accuracy in recognising Alzheimer's disease, a common form of dementia, based on a test using an open-access dataset of spontaneous speech from DementiaBank. Following this test, the predictive AI was incorporated into a mobile application, which is now being prepared for a trial at senior welfare centres. The research team is also working to expand the LLM used in the AI to include images and videos, besides text and speech inputs. WHY IT MATTERS By 2025, South Korea is projected to become a super-aged society where people over the age of 65 account for a fifth of the entire population. That figure can also rise to about 40% by 2050. About 10% of the country's senior population or around 840,000 people are living with dementia, based on the latest South Korea Dementia Status report in 2021. Their number is expected to swell to over 3 million by 2050. ETRI's development of a dementia screening tool contributes to various efforts to prepare for such a future. The mobile application enables monitoring at the community level and thus helps in the early detection of mild cognitive impairment among the elderly. It also supports health management to halt the progression of dementia. THE LARGER TREND A growing body of research highlights the use of AI in predicting people's risk of developing dementia, particularly Alzheimer's disease. Fujifilm announced the development of AI Technology for AD Progression Prediction in 2022. It was reported that the technology can predict the likelihood of a person's mild cognitive impairment progressing to Alzheimer's in two years. Eisai and Oita University in Japan also built what could be the world's first AI model that analyses wearables data to predict Alzheimer's. Meanwhile, another Korean organisation, the Korea Institute of Machinery and Materials, created an intraocular eye lens that reacts to an Alzheimer's biomarker, potentially enabling early detection.

NeuroX, a neurology-focused online consultation service, and its physician network ATP Partners announced it will participate in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) GUIDE Program to enhance care for dementia patients. NeuroX, American TelePhysician's brain health division, offers a virtual-care platform that connects individuals with neurologists, psychiatrists and sleep specialists to provide what the company touts as a "complete brain health ecosystem." The company works with employers, individuals and facilities, offering online screening and consultations, neurodiagnostics, AI-enabled remote patient monitoring and a speech-based cognitive-assessment test dubbed LANGaware. CMS' GUIDE Program, which will officially launch July 1, aims to support individuals living with dementia and their caregivers by providing care coordination and care-management services, respite services, and caregiver education and support. Individuals will also have 24/7 access to a support line. Additionally, the program will provide guidelines for a standard approach to care with the aim of keeping dementia patients living in their homes. Through the GUIDE Program, individuals suffering from dementia will have access to NeuroX and ATP's technology platform, including its diagnostics, treatment and home care services. "GUIDE is the latest innovative CMS value-based program focused on improving clinical quality while lowering health care expenditures for Medicare," ATP CFO David Spalding said in a statement. "As a GUIDE participant, ATP will deploy our scalable, award-winning brain health care management platform to support our proprietary specialist telemedicine network and in conjunction with community-based physician groups focused on senior populations with chronic conditions." THE LARGER TREND CMS announced the GUIDE model in July of last year in response to President Biden's executive order issued three months earlier to increase access to high-quality care and support caregivers. According to the CDC, approximately 5.8 million people in the U.S. have Alzheimer's disease or another form of dementia, and by 2060 that number is expected to jump to 14 million people. Other organizations focused on providing dementia care are Japanese pharmaceutical company Eisai and Oita University, also in Japan, which built an AI model that uses data from wearable devices to predict Alzheimer's disease, the most common form of dementia. St. Louis-based Harmonic Health is another tech-enabled dementia-care platform, as is Fujifilm Corporation, which developed AI technology to predict whether patients with mild cognitive impairment will progress to Alzheimer's disease within two years.