ABSTRACT:
The Qinghai–Tibet Plateau hosts the rare alpine Tibetan medicinal herb
Corydalis hendersonii
Hemsl. The wild resources of
C. hendersonii
are being increasingly threatened by climate warming and intensified human activity. We employed a biomod2 ensemble species distribution model, integrating climatic variables, light/radiation variables, soil‐property layers, topographic variables, and the Human Footprint Index with 75 spatially rarefied occurrence records, to predict the potential geographic distribution and shifts in habitat suitability under SSP126 and SSP585 (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s), climate dependence, human‐footprint effects, and ecological niche dynamics. 10 algorithms were calibrated with pseudo‐absences and repeated resampling, and the high‐performing models (ROC > 0.9; TSS > 0.8) were combined into a weighted ensemble; XGBoost yielded the highest single‐model accuracy. Ultraviolet radiation (UV‐B) was the dominant predictor of suitability, followed by elevation and key thermal‐contrast variables (BIO1, BIO4, and BIO7), indicating strong adaptation to high‐altitude extreme environments characterized by intense radiation, low mean temperature, and large temperature amplitudes. The current high‐suitability habitats are concentrated in Tibet, with limited patches in southern Xinjiang, southern Qinghai, western Sichuan, and northern Yunnan, reflecting a narrow alpine niche. Future projections diverge strongly between pathways: under SSP126, moderate–high suitability is maintained and slightly expanded, whereas under SSP585, high‐suitability areas contract, leading to an overall shift toward higher‐elevation refugia and a northwestward migration of the centroid. When the Human Footprint Index layer was included, high‐suitability areas consistently decreased and peripheral contraction became more pronounced, indicating that climate‐only projections overestimate realized habitat area. Climatic niche overlap remained high overall but declined and fluctuated more under SSP585, suggesting niche displacement under intense climate warming. The results provide a basis for conserving
C. hendersonii
by prioritizing core habitats and implementing targeted management under future climate change scenarios.