Risankizumab-RZAA

There are plenty of questions about what 2025 might hold for the pharmaceutical market. While uncertainty driven by factors like the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have been in play for some time, new questions are being raised almost daily with an incoming Trump administration, the BIOSECURE Act, and an ever-changing geopolitical landscape.However, there are more predictable realities too, including the continued dominance of obesity and other big diseases, and a need for dealmaking driven by the patent cliff which is no longer looming but well and truly upon us. Pharma is a long game, so what does the picture look like if we cast an eye out to 2030? The growth boostThe first thing to note is a growth rate of 7.7% from 2023-2030 a significant increase on the five-year CAGR in recent years, and taking worldwide prescription drugs sales to a value of $1.7 trillion. Whats driving this growth? Inevitably, obesity drugs loom large. GLP-1 agonists and related incretins are helping drive record overall prescription drug sales growth, propelling leaders Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly to the top of the company rankings and hogging the lions share of the 2030 product top ten (see below). The burning question now is how big could the market become?. Evaluate Pharmas consensus forecasts has the obesity market hitting $66bn by 2030, and many financial analysts believe that the incretins, across all uses, could become biopharmas first drug class to hit annual sales of $100bn.Top 10 Selling Products Worldwide in 2030Evaluate World Preview ReportBeyond GLP-1sWhile diabetes, obesity and potentially now MASH are driving the extraordinary growth of GLP-1s, there are other areas of significant growth. One of the features of the coming years looks to be a shift away from rare diseases. Niche products share of worldwide prescription drug sales by value has doubled over the last decade, from less than 10% in 2014 to almost a fifth today with 2024 sales forecast to hit $185bn. That looks set to change, though, with big drugs for big diseases garnering greatest interest from key pharma players. In the chart above, youll see that immuno-inflammation and oncology also make 2030s top ten. Sanofis Dupixent and AbbVies Skyrizi will be the biggest non-obesity drugs in that year. Resurgent CNS and respiratory are both prominent among the most valuable pipeline candidates (full analysis available in our full World Preview report), as innovation advances continue across the board.New modalities and technologies continue to open up novel targets and targeting mechanisms: antibody drug conjugates (ADCs), multi-specific antibodies, RNA-based therapies, and radiopharmaceuticals are all expected to grow steeply to 2030.Cliff edgeBig Pharmas appetite for these big drugs reflects ongoing patent expiry challenges, expected to thwart the likes of Merck, J&J and Bristol Myers Squibb this decade.Patent expiries are a feature of the landscape, just like the M&A that can help address them. Pharma acquisitions reached a healthy $124 billion in 2023 but have stalled at least in value in 2024. By the end of Q3, total deal value was at just $65bn though a lively Q4 could still help fill some pipelines and mitigate those losses of exclusivity. The US Inflation Reduction Act is bedding into the landscape. Industrys legal challenges have so far failed, and price negotiations between pharma firms and Medicare/CMS are ongoing. Many implementation details of the Act remain unclear; over the coming months, well learn just how aggressively (or otherwise) the incoming US administration will translate the law into action.We may also learn how kindly or otherwise the FTC will look upon large mergers, should larger biopharmas test the waters with sizable acquisitions that have been missing from the landscape for the past year. The outlook The next few months will also give players in the pharma market a better sense of the regulatory environment theyll be operating in for the next four years, but the fundamentals of pharma remain strong. Innovation is firing on all cylinders, there is impetus for dealmaking, and there are hints of the IPO window finally opening which will provide investors for exits and opportunities for reinvestment. Evaluates full World Preview report delves into much more detail about growth in key therapy areas, some big shifts in the top 10 pharma companies, and the most valuable pipeline assets. You can find the report and a range of analysis around it here. '

Merck's revenue grew by 18% in the third quarter, with projected annual sales of Keytruda exceeding $29 billion, potentially reaching $30 billion. The 15-valent pneumonia vaccine generated $239 million in revenue, a 13% increase. The 21-valent pneumonia vaccine performed well in the market. However, sales of the 9-valent HPV vaccine in China declined by 10%. Sales of the cardiovascular drug Winrevair reached $149 million, with approximately 1,700 new patients in the third quarter. Despite a downward adjustment in annual revenue guidance, the strong performance of Keytruda and investment in R&D provide support for Merck's future growth. Eli Lilly reported $11.44 billion in revenue for the third quarter, a 20% increase, with a net profit of $970 million. Total revenue for the first three quarters reached $31.5 billion, a 27% increase, with net profit at $6.18 billion. Sales of innovative drugs were strong, particularly tirzepatide, which achieved $11 billion in sales during the first three quarters. Eli Lilly's launch of innovative drugs in cardiovascular, immunology, and oncology fields supports its revenue growth. Other multinational pharmaceutical companies, such as Novartis, Sanofi, and AstraZeneca, also achieved double-digit growth due to the release of innovative drugs, market expansion, and cost control. Johnson & Johnson, AbbVie, and BMS experienced slight growth in the third quarter, maintaining their positions in the top ten. GSK dropped out of the top ten due to declining performance. Johnson & Johnson reported $22.5 billion in revenue, a 5.2% increase, with pharmaceutical business growth of 4.9% and medical device business growth of 5.8%. Sales of the BCMA CAR-T therapy in collaboration with Legend Biotech reached $629 million, an increase of 84.3%. Johnson & Johnson faced challenges, with self-immunity business growth slowing to 1% and ustekinumab sales declining by 1.2%. However, the oncology business grew by 17.2%, becoming a new driver of performance. AbbVie reported $41.232 billion in revenue for the first three quarters, an increase of about 3%. The patent cliff effect of Humira caused a 37.2% decline in sales, but strong sales of Skyrizi and Rinvoq supported performance. GSK's revenue for the third quarter was £8.012 billion, a decrease of 1.6%. The vaccine sector performed poorly, with sales of Arexvy and Shingrix declining. Specialty pharmaceuticals grew by 19%, and oncology grew by 94%. GSK plans to increase investment in specialty pharmaceuticals, seeking to revive its vaccine sector and expand its partnership network. The global pharmaceutical industry shows diversified performance, with concerns arising from the underperformance of some companies. Pharmaceutical companies need to strengthen innovation, international cooperation, and marketing to ensure long-term stable development. Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson, and AbbVie performed outstandingly, while companies like GSK provide insights for adjustment and transformation.