Retatrutide

▎Armstrong2025年6月24日，礼来在Clinicaltrials.gov网站上注册了Retatrutide治疗肥胖伴下背痛的三期临床试验。该三期临床计划入组586例肥胖伴下背痛患者，随访维持80周，预计2027年9月完成。下背痛可能有多种因素引发，生活方式因素中肥胖与下背痛密切相关。总结Retatrutide为全球首款GLP-1/GIP/GCG三靶点激动剂，目前已经围绕减重开展多项三期临床试验，同时在探索糖尿病、慢性肾脏病以及更多新适应症。Armstrong技术全梳理系列GPRC5D靶点全梳理；CD40靶点全梳理；CD47靶点全梳理；补体靶向药物技术全梳理；补体药物：眼科治疗的重要方向；Claudin 6靶点全梳理；Claudin 18.2靶点全梳理；靶点冷暖，行业自知；中国大分子新药研发格局；被炮轰的“me too”；佐剂百年史；胰岛素百年传奇；CUSBEA：风雨四十载；中国新药研发的焦虑；中国生物医药企业的研发竞争；中国双抗竞争格局；中国ADC竞争格局；中国双抗技术全梳理；中国ADC技术全梳理；Ambrx技术全梳理；Vir Biotech技术全梳理；Immune-Onc技术全梳理；亘喜生物技术全梳理；康哲药业技术全梳理；科济药业技术全梳理；恺佧生物技术全梳理；同宜医药技术全梳理；百奥赛图技术全梳理；腾盛博药技术全梳理；创胜集团技术全梳理；永泰生物技术全梳理；中国抗体技术全梳理；德琪医药技术全梳理；德琪医药技术全梳理2.0；和铂医药技术全梳理；荣昌生物技术全梳理；再鼎医药技术全梳理；药明生物技术全梳理；恒瑞医药技术全梳理；豪森药业技术全梳理；正大天晴技术全梳理；吉凯基因技术全梳理；基石药业技术全梳理；百济神州技术全梳理；百济神州技术全梳理第2版；信达生物技术全梳理；信达生物技术全梳理第2版；中山康方技术全梳理；复宏汉霖技术全梳理；先声药业技术全梳理；君实生物技术全梳理；嘉和生物技术全梳理；志道生物技术全梳理；道尔生物技术全梳理；尚健生物技术全梳理；康宁杰瑞技术全梳理；科望医药技术全梳理；岸迈生物技术全梳理；礼进生物技术全梳理；康桥资本技术全梳理；余国良的抗体药布局；荃信生物技术全梳理；安源医药技术全梳理；三生国健技术全梳理；仁会生物技术全梳理；乐普生物技术全梳理；同润生物技术全梳理；宜明昂科技术全梳理；派格生物技术全梳理；迈威生物技术全梳理；Momenta技术全梳理；NGM技术全梳理；普米斯生物技术全梳理；普米斯生物技术全梳理2.0；三叶草生物技术全梳理；贝达药业抗体药全梳理；泽璟制药抗体药全梳理；恒瑞医药抗体药全梳理；齐鲁制药抗体药全梳理；石药集团抗体药全梳理；豪森药业抗体药全梳理；华海药业抗体药全梳理；科伦药业抗体药全梳理；百奥泰技术全梳理；凡恩世技术全梳理。

iStock, Yutthana Gaetgeaw Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide is expected to be worth $62 billion annually by 2030, according to Evaluate. That valuation would be three times larger than what AbbVie’s blockbuster Humira ever achieved. Total prescription drug sales are expected to grow to $1.75 trillion by 2030, at which point GLP-1 therapies will make up 9% of total prescriptions, according to a new report from Evaluate. The weight loss and diabetes mega-blockbusters are expected to grow 20% between 2024 and 2030. “They are in a class of their own,” Evaluate said in the World Preview report , published Tuesday. Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide, marketed as Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for weight loss, is expected to rake in $62 billion a year by 2030, according to Evaluate. That valuation would be three times larger than what AbbVie’s blockbuster Humira—long considered the best-selling drug in the world —achieved. It’s double the 2024 sales of Merck’s Keytruda. The broader category of GLP-1 drugs are “projected to reach hitherto unseen sales peaks,” according to Evaluate. This class of drugs is expected to have five of the top 10 slots on the best-sellers list by 2030 and will be four of the most promising candidates in the pipeline. But Lilly appears to be clearly leading the way. “Lilly’s supremacy in this battle is already apparent,” Evaluate wrote. Mounjaro and Zepbound are expected to be the best- and third-best selling drugs by the end of the decade. Lilly’s main competitor is Novo Nordisk, whose semaglutide is marketed as Wegovy for diabetes and Ozempic for weight loss. Those drugs sit at sixth and fifth, respectively. “First-mover Novo Nordisk lost ground due to its sluggish response to manufacturing shortages of Wegovy (semaglutide), which led to a flood of compounded (pharmacy-mixed) drug,” according to the report. Novo has acknowledged some stumbles, even ousting CEO Lars Fruergaard Jørgensen in May in a surprise move. Evaluate did say that Novo’s pipeline asset CagriSema, which combines semaglutide with an amylin agonist, is the most promising asset in R&D at the moment, with peak sales projections of $80 billion. But the drug has stumbled in the clinic, falling short of expectations and forcing Novo to launch a longer-duration trial to test different dosing. “If it doesn’t improve, CagriSema will only match Zepbound in efficacy, yet is more complex to manufacture,” Evaluate said. The Rest of the Best Immuno-inflammatory drugs will also continue to lead, with AbbVie’s Skyrizi and Sanofi/Regeneron’s Dupixent in the forefront and on track to make over $25 billion each in 2030. Oncology, too, will have a story to tell in 2030, with Johnson & Johnson’s Genmab-partnered blood cancer drug Darzalex meeting Merck’s falling star Keytruda as its patent expires in 2028 . The current best-selling immuno-oncology drug will fall to seventh place by 2030. “Keytruda’s 2028 expiry puts Merck at the top of the most exposed companies to patent-related sales losses over the rest of the decade—and is the only top ten drug with negative growth,” Evaluate wrote. But Merck is hoping to patch some of the holes in its Keytruda losses with a subcutaneous formulation that Evaluate named as one of the most valuable pipeline drugs by net present value. “It’s a shining case study in life-cycle management,” the analysis firm said, and one that the forthcoming GLP-1 combos and formulations may be able to copy as pipeline assets like oral GLP-1 orforglipron and triple-G agonist retatrutide are expected to take the market by storm . Pfizer has taken one of the biggest tumbles on Evaluate’s rankings, falling from the number one slot in the pandemic years to last place in the list of top 10 companies with the most drug sales expected in 2030. Novartis is also expected to be stuck in the bottom half as it lacks a standout blockbuster. Sanofi, on the other hand, is the “most impressive” non-GLP-1 company rising up the list, according to Evaluate. The French pharma is rising thanks to Dupixent, which is expected to grow by 10%.