Novo Nordisk A/S

氨基观察-创新药组原创出品 作者 | 沙晓威 种种迹象表明，一场强劲的并购浪潮正在全球生物医药领域加速酝酿。 历经两年的估值回调和交易收缩，创新药并购正在显现出回暖迹象。根据贝恩公司日前发布的《2026年全球并购报告》（以下简称“报告”），截至2025年11月15日，生物制药交易的总额较2024年同期增长了79%，平均交易规模上涨超过80%，并购信心明显回归。 尽管在最新一届JPM大会期间，市场期待的超大型并购案并未如期落地，但市场依然乐观，因为交易的底层逻辑和驱动力已经变得无比坚实。 在早期研发成本上升、专利悬崖不断逼近的背景下，通过并购直接获取增长筹码与创新资产，成为大药企最快捷的战略路径。 贝恩公司也在其报告中指出，全球并购正在经历由技术颠覆、去全球化以及利润池转移共同驱动的新一轮结构性调整，而制药行业正处在这股变化的前沿。 并购的重心正在从“押注下一个重磅单品”，转向对平台、生产的整体资源；同时，规模更大、出手更果断、战略意图更清晰是新一轮制药并购的显著特征。 而透过报告中总结的四大关键战略趋势：垂直整合、下一代肥胖药、ADC竞速以及大中华区创新力量的崛起，或许我们能够看清，创新药并购的风正吹向何方…… / 01 / The quest for vertical integration： 垂直整合 首先是产业链垂直整合并购，也称为纵向并购。 之所以将其放在首位，一方面是合并上下游是节约成本的关键方式。相关数据显示，垂直整合可以将企业，尤其是医疗器械企业供应链成本降低15-25%。 另一方面则是避免“卡脖子”事件发生，在高度复杂的生物制药体系中，决定产品能否按期上市并实现商业化的，不仅是研发，还有生产供应链。 贝恩在报告中以核药为例，指出当前核药相关交易正在明显向“制造与同位素供应一体化”倾斜。 从趋势看，2022–2024年核药交易数量持续上升，2024年达到峰值41起，其中绝大多数交易都包含制造能力或同位素供应布局。即便在2025年前三季度，整体交易数量有所回落，但以“产能+资产”为核心的交易结构依然占据主体。 一些MNC已经率先完成了部署：诺华是核药资源垂直整合的先行者，2018年1月以约39亿美元收购Advanced Accelerator Applications，将Lutathera®与放射性药物开发制造体系收入囊中。此后，礼来在2023年以约14亿美元收购POINT Biopharma，获得RLT管线及生产基地，并在2024年通过入股的方式与Ionetix公司合作提前锁定锕-225供应。 本质上，这是从制造到生产的“端到端”效率提升，更是MNC抢占资源与专利垄断的关键手段。 正如报告中对2026并购策略提示的，将制造和供应控制视为核心竞争优势。建设或收购产能已不仅仅是运营保障，更是决定未来市场领导力的战略举措。 / 02 /  A next-generation obesity treatment gold rush: 下一代减重疗法的“淘金潮” 创新药并购的第二大趋势指向下一代减重疗法。 2025年全球减重市场整体销售额持续上涨，即便面对美国定价压力增加，GLP-1市场已经近600亿美元，这轮超市场预期的表现已经延续到2026年初的口服药。更大的价值是，减肥药的影响已明显外溢，包括食品、消费品甚至农业等非医药产业的扩散效应，进一步抬升了医药端的战略意义。 不久前，Evaluate在Nature reviews的市场分析中发布了对2026年全球药品销售额的预测分析：2026年销售额最高的10种药物中有4种是GLP-1及相关靶点药物，预计将贡献今年绝大部分的增长值。 资源掠夺已全面开始。诺和诺德以约20亿美元引进联邦制药的三靶点GLP-1新药UBT251；辉瑞以100亿美元成功抢夺Metsera重点关注超长效GLP-1，以及20亿美元总付款收获复星医药口服GLP‑1小分子。 而进入2026年，减重药仍将占据并购交易价值的重要份额。但不同于第一波以“快速上市”为核心目标的新药争夺，新一轮并购更聚焦于下一代给药平台、口服制剂、小分子、新靶点以及GLP-1多激动剂分子的布局。 报告给出的战略提示也相当直接：并购应当超越单一分子层面，通过整合给药创新、构建规模化生产能力，并同步推进面向患者的市场化体系，才能真正释放最大价值。 / 03 / The antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) race: 抗体药物偶联物竞赛 近年来，全球ADC新药迎来了新的高潮。不仅多款新药获批，已上市的ADC药物如Enhertu、Datroway仍在积极拓展适应症，覆盖了多种恶性肿瘤。 随着精准治疗理念的成熟，ADC已经转变为肿瘤治疗体系中的关键组成部分。今年JPM大会上，多家MNC将ADC纳入关键战略产品组成。典型如阿斯利康明确将“下一代IO双抗+高价值ADC”列为创新增长支柱。 这进一步推动着ADC并购活动的快速发展。 过去两年，ADC一直是生物制药并购交易中炙手可热的资产。2023年辉瑞以430亿美元收购Seagen率先点燃了热情，接近着2024年艾伯维又以101亿美元收购Immuno Gen顺利接棒。2025年这一势头仍在延续，据统计，最新ADC并购规模已占所有抗体和重组抗体交易的40%。 与前两个趋势不同，报告在ADC并购上的态度更为谨慎，强调ADC的并购优先级不应放在规模扩张，而在于差异化。 早期ADC的核心在于linker稳定性、payload毒性与DAR优化这些成药特征。而新一轮ADC已围绕适应症选择、联合治疗定位以及平台可扩展性进行升级迭代。尤其在“IO+ADC”组合策略的推动下，ADC的应用边界仍在不断外延，甚至正在探索自免适应症临床。 当然，资本不会为“可复制的项目”买单，差异化靶点、低毒性等具备长期竞争力的ADC，才会是并购偏爱的选择。 / 04 / Greater China’s rise as pharma power house: 大中华区崛起为制药强国 最后，也是四大趋势中唯一一个非商业产品的提醒：大中华区崛起为全球制药创新高地。 报告明确指出，中国创新药已形成世界级、可被全球验证的医药管线，正在成为跨国药企并购与合作的重要来源。尽管美国和欧洲企业对中国行业的并购交易仍持谨慎选择态度，但授权合作数量大幅上升。 自2020年以来，中国创新药在全球授权交易中的数量、份额已翻倍增长。 这一趋势的形成，一方面源于中国创新药自身成熟度显著提升，已从性价比资产转变成确定性研发资产；另一方面，也与跨国药企和中国药企之间逐步建立起的信任密切相关。当然New-Co、Co-Co、区域授权等多元合作模式的普及，也加速着中国创新药的全球化进程。 更重要的是，这一趋势的影响并不止于并购策略本身，长期来看，甚至可能重塑全球生物医药战略格局。 因此，报告给出的并购战略建议是：跨国药企应更深度参与中国创新体系，以充分受益于其科学势能，同时在交易结构设计上兼顾控制权、合规要求以及未来海外市场的长期选项。 / 05 /  总结 不难看出，新一轮创新药并购浪潮的核心特征，正如贝恩所指出的，呈现出交易规模扩大、决策节奏加快、战略意图清晰的特点，但其本质是一场有选择、有方向的价值深耕。 对于大药企来说，未来并购的胜负手，在于能否真正锚定决定企业长期竞争力的核心资产。 从赛道来看，肥胖药、ADC 等热门领域的并购热度将持续攀升；从模式来看，覆盖研发、生产、商业化的全产业链整合已成必然趋势；从格局来看，具备差异化创新能力的中国药企，正成为全球并购市场中不可忽视的伙伴。 这不仅是对并购方的战略提醒，更关乎整个创新药产业的高质量发展方向。 PS：欢迎扫描下方二维码，添加氨基君微信号交流。

Welcome back to Endpoints Weekly! Fourth-quarter earnings season is in full swing, and our team covered reports this week from Teva, Roche, Sanofi, Takeda and Regeneron. CMS also unveiled the next 15 drugs subject to Medicare negotiations under the Inflation Reduction Act. The announcement comes as the Supreme Court weighs whether to step into drugmakers’ legal fight against the IRA. We’ve got the details below. Plus, we have reports on AstraZeneca’s $15 billion bet on China and Hengrui’s global aspirations. And Senior Science Correspondent Ryan Cross has the scoop on an upcoming clinical trial that will test a biotech startup’s experimental therapy that could bring about a “near total reset” for cells. We’ll be back next week with more earnings reports from Pfizer, Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, GSK and others. Stay warm this weekend, and see you on Monday! — Nicole DeFeudis 📊 After Johnson & Johnson reported earnings last week, Roche, Sanofi, Takeda, Regeneron and Teva followed up with their quarterly reports. Here are some of the highlights: 🔬 A startup called Life Biosciences got the FDA’s permission to start a clinical study of its gene therapy designed to rewind the clock on dying cells, the company told Endpoints News’ Ryan Cross in an exclusive interview. Life Biosciences was co-founded by Harvard biologist David Sinclair, who in the late 1990s proposed that aging is primarily due to the loss of epigenetic information. Life Bio’s therapy delivers a trio of proteins that Sinclair’s lab says has the ability to reset the epigenome to a more youthful state. Life Bio calls its approach partial epigenetic reprogramming, and its clinical trial will be the first to test the concept in humans, Ryan reported. The approach is similar to a Nobel Prize-winning lab technique that can turn adult cells into blank-slate stem cells, but Life Bio’s therapy intentionally stops short of that full rollback. Since the FDA doesn’t recognize aging itself as a disease, the company’s Phase 1 trial will test its gene therapy in two forms of vision loss. The bold approach may garner some skepticism. The anti-aging field has long been mired in audacious claims and drugs with fuzzy mechanisms. But Sinclair remains bullish about the therapy and believes the vision loss study will provide clear-cut evidence on whether partial epigenetic reprogramming is effective. “Shortly, maybe it’s in the next few months, we’ll have our first indication of whether age reversal can work in humans,” he said. Ryan has all the details here. 🇨🇳 Biotechs from China are catching up fast to their Western counterparts. No company embodies this acceleration more than Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals , news reporter Lei Lei Wu wrote this week. Often shortened to Hengrui, the company was once virtually unknown outside China. Now, its market cap of $61 billion-plus ranks it among the top 25 pharma companies in the world, more than Takeda and Bayer. How did Hengrui get here? The company started over 50 years ago as a generic drugmaker, but began focusing on developing its own drugs within the last two decades or so. Currently, Hengrui has more than 100 experimental treatments being studied across some 400-plus clinical trials. That speed, particularly in the early stages of drug development, has become a hallmark of China biotech’s rise, Lei Lei writes. Now the company hopes to build up its commercial capabilities outside of China. That will be the next frontier and true test case to see if Chinese medicines can stack up against Western drugs. Though Hengrui has won US approvals for generic drugs, it hasn’t yet done so for its own therapies. The core economic argument from American biopharmas has been that American drugs are more expensive because patients get the best treatments first. Will that change? We’ll be watching. Read more of Lei Lei’s excellent story here . 🤝Eli Lilly’s GLP-1 diabetes drug Trulicity and Gilead’s HIV drug Biktarvy are among 15 drugs selected for the third round of Medicare negotiations under the IRA. Click here to see our reporting on the full list. Drugs payable under Medicare Part B were included for the first time this year. Also for the first time, CMS has selected one additional drug for renegotiation: Boehringer Ingelheim’s diabetes drug Tradjenta. Drugmakers have until Feb. 28 to opt into negotiations, which would take effect in 2028. Meanwhile, the pharma industry’s court battle is heating up. AstraZeneca, Bristol Myers Squibb, Johnson & Johnson, Novo Nordisk, Novartis and Boehringer Ingelheim have asked the high court to review their IRA challenges. Drugmakers and the industry trade group PhRMA have brought a range of constitutional and statutory challenges. But so far, drugmakers have lost every case where a court has ruled on the merits, with just a handful of cases pending in the lower courts. Some analysts say drugmakers will likely be able to handle the impacts of the third round of negotiations. They cited past negotiations, upcoming patent losses and new drug development as some reasons why the potential impacts may be modest. “With prior rounds of pricing negotiations reasonable, and several of these medicines set to lose exclusivity in the near-term, we continue to expect that the impacts will be manageable,” BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman said in a note to investors. Read more here. 💰AstraZeneca will invest $15 billion to bolster manufacturing of medicines and ramp up R&D in China through 2030, the company announced this week. The investment was announced as a delegation of dozens of business executives and UK leaders, including Prime Minister Keir Starmer, visited China this week. AstraZeneca has been a driving force in the pharma industry’s move into China. The UK drugmaker set up shop in China in 1993 and has more than 17,000 employees there. It said this week that it wants to grow to more than 20,000 staffers in the country. About 7% of its 2024 revenue came from China. AstraZeneca quickly made good on its promise , agreeing to a $1.2 billion upfront deal with China-based CSPC Pharmaceutical. The deal spans eight programs, including a Phase 1-ready once-monthly GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist for obesity. DON’T MISS:

阿尔茨海默症（AD），向来被视为新药研发的死亡谷。从罗氏到礼来，再到赛诺菲、艾伯维...，几乎所有制药巨头的研发账单上，都躺过几个烧掉数亿美金的墓碑。近段时间，诺和诺德司美格鲁肽跨界 AD 失败，又给这个领域蒙上了一层阴影。 根据 Insight 数据库，截至目前，全球也就 3 款靶向 AD 新药进入了市场，其中阿杜那单抗（Aducanumab）还因各种争议黯然退场。 好在近两年，随着新靶点和新技术的进展，新一代 AD 药物开始涌现。今天，我们就来拆解 4 款下一代 AD 新药，它们通过基因调控、创新递送等前沿技术，重新定义了 AD 的研发方向，详情点击视频。 封面来源：站酷海洛 免责声明：本文仅作信息分享，不代表 Insight 立场和观点，也不作治疗方案推荐和介绍。如有需求，请咨询和联系正规医疗机构。 编辑：月牙 PR 稿对接：微信 insightxb 投稿：微信 insightxb；邮箱 insight@dxy.cn