Can Eli Lilly escape the boom-and-bust cycle that has long defined the pharma business?
In January, Lilly CEO David Ricks was on stage with Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang. Ricks had recently (if briefly) joined the trillion-dollar club, a rarefied set of corporate chiefs whose companies have touched or exceeded that stratospheric valuation. Huang, a longtime member, wears it with the relaxation of his ever-present leather motorcycle jacket. Ricks, more often found in a sport jacket, is new to the club.
To keep his spot, Ricks is trying to do what no pharma company has succeeded in. He needs to turn the windfall from Lilly’s massive success in weight loss into building a pipeline — and new technological approaches — that’s so broad, so forward-looking and so lucky, that he defies the gravitational pull of blockbuster patent expiries that reliably hauls down every high-flying drugmaker. On stage with Huang at an Nvidia event in San Francisco, Ricks called it achieving “exit velocity.”
To do that, Lilly has undertaken a range of unusual ideas that could leave an impact on the biopharma ecosystem. While it’s busy building out its weight loss franchise with additional assets, it’s also partnering with Nvidia on
a new AI-powered discovery lab
, constructing
an industry-leading supercomputer
, offering an
AI model-for-data swap
to biotechs, leaning heavily into
direct-to-patient sales
, and partnering with the VC firm a16z on
a new biotech fund
.
If it all works, Lilly could not only redefine the boundaries of drug company economics, but leave its stamp on the broader healthcare system itself. If it fails, the company — and Ricks — could end up redefining the meaning of “the bigger they are, the harder they fall.”
“Lilly has a blend of exuberance and confidence of being the first trillion-dollar pharma combined with the paranoia and anxiety of sitting on what will become the biggest patent cliff in the industry’s history,”said Elliot Hershberg, who helps lead biotech investing at the VC firm Amplify Partners. He added that he views Lilly as playing on a different chessboard than the rest of the drugmaking giants.
Ricks has brought an obsession with speed to Lilly, driven perhaps by his own memories of how quickly financial fortunes can turn. It has experienced two crushing patent cliffs, one with Prozac in 2001 and another with Zyprexa in 2011, that left the company as one of the industry’s least loved, until its recent success hauled it to new heights.
Ricks called speed the most important element to improving R&D, therefore boosting Lilly’s future beyond today’s weight loss successes. The key patent for the main ingredient in Mounjaro and Zepbound won’t expire until 2036, but when that time comes, the loss could be enormous.
“The challenge before us now is, how do we find another success cycle before that one runs out — hopefully a lot sooner than when it runs out,” Ricks told Huang, “and sort of get exit velocity. There’s really no major company in our industry that’s done that.”
Ricks joined Lilly’s marketing department in 1996. He went from running the Canadian market to the Chinese market, eventually becoming CEO in 2017. In his first performance management review as the company’s leader,
he was told
he had an “overdeveloped sense of urgency.” That’s trickled down to the rest of the 50,000-employee company.
“We have an impatient CEO,” Lilly’s chief information and digital officer Diogo Rau said in an interview, when asked about the collaboration with Nvidia. The companies are building a first-of-its-kind Bay Area laboratory that will physically co-locate scientists from both organizations to work on a range of AI moonshots in biopharma.
The arrangement started with texts between Ricks and Huang last year. The goal is to open the Bay Area lab by the end of March, Rau said, a far faster speed than most big pharma companies typically build.
Rau departed Apple to join Lilly in 2021. Some ex-Apple folks who followed him have told him they’re amazed by “how fast we move here,” he said.
The speed means a lot of deals. Ricks said at his JPM presentation the business development team averaged a deal every nine days in 2025, totaling 39 on the year — far more than any other rival company.
Many of these deals are a bit out-there compared to the standard, pipeline-stuffing tendency of large drugmakers. Some are higher-risk projects, like
Verve’s cholesterol-lowering gene editing program
or
Ventyx’s inhibitors against NLRP3
, a target tied to aging-related diseases. Others, like the lab with Nvidia and bankrolling the a16z fund, are structured in ways even further divorced from the aim of bringing in specific drugs to boost revenue. Absent are any big, late-stage deals.
Rau said the underlying driver is a willingness to “make bets on things we have high conviction on.”
“We don’t necessarily require a brute financial case that might take three months to build,” Rau said. “We’ve learned from our past decisions that we regret more the things that we haven’t done or moved quickly on than the things we have done.”
One of its first deals of 2026
was with Chai Discovery
, an AI startup developing some leading protein design models. Its co-founders said the Lilly team was in its San Francisco office the week after it released details on its Chai-2 model last summer. Just a few months later, they became Chai’s first announced pharma partner.
“They’ve just run through all sorts of walls to get the approvals they needed to make this happen really quickly,” Chai co-founder Jack Dent said in an interview. “That’s going to pay massive dividends for them. Other companies may want to take note.”
Pharma peers, by comparison, seem like they’re treading water. Sanofi has struggled to answer what comes next after Dupixent, recently ousting Paul Hudson as CEO. Merck and Pfizer have made a flurry of expensive deals and major restructurings to brace for their own upcoming patent expiries on key drugs like Keytruda and Eliquis, which are expected before the end of this decade.
Lilly has the chance to pursue a different fate. That will likely require hitting on some of the big-swinging ideas that could unlock huge patient populations, if successful. Those include a cholesterol-lowering gene editing program, large Alzheimer’s prevention studies, and non-opioid pain medications in the pipeline.
“They’re incredibly ambitious, long-term thinkers,” a16z general partner Vineeta Agarwala said in an interview. “I do not think they are chasing patent cliffs.”
It also hasn’t led to empire building, or a loss of discipline. Ricks says he has tried to keep headcount flat, and Lilly’s headcount grew by about 3,000 people, or 6%, over the last year, even as its revenue grew by 45% last year. He weighs in on all new hires and promotions above a certain level.
“That makes me very unpopular,” he said on a recent podcast,
an unusual, free-flowing two-hour-long conversation
that sounded more like the loose, tech-cool Huang than the typical pharma CEO. “People are like, ‘How do I get this work done?’”
The comparison extends to its market valuation, which makes Lilly look more like a Silicon Valley tech darling than a drugmaker.
Lilly has kept a frenetic pace since the JP Morgan conference, when Ricks was on stage with Huang. They have given hints of what could be the next piece of the obesity story, in combination trials with some of its other drugs
like Taltz
that appear to boost efficacy in conditions like psoriasis.
Outside of obesity, the first weeks of the year have included partnerships on gene editing and immunology, an acquisition of an
in vivo
CAR-T therapy, a sweeping R&D deal with a Chinese biotech powerhouse, and the announcement of a new Allentown, PA factory alongside Gov. Josh Shapiro.
The unavoidable fate of pharma looms around every corner: Look no further than the downfall of its chief GLP-1 rival Novo Nordisk. In May, Lilly will celebrate its 150th anniversary. Next year, Ricks will celebrate his 10-year anniversary in the CEO job. For now, he and the company are on top. The real question is how long they can stay there.