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Lilly's Q3 sales jump 37% on Mounjaro, Verzenio sales

2023-11-02

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Headline results for the third quarter: Revenue: $9.5 billion (forecasts of $9 billion), up 37%

Loss: $57.4 million, versus profit of $1.5 billion

Note: All changes are versus the prior-year period unless otherwise stated

What the company said:

"Eli Lilly had another strong quarter…as Mounjaro and Verzenio continued to gain momentum," said CEO David Ricks, adding it "executed on business development priorities in the third quarter, including multiple acquisitions."

The company also flagged delays in fulfilling orders of certain Mounjaro doses in the quarter. The dual GIP and GLP-1 receptor agonist GLP-1 receptor agonist – currently approved for diabetes but under FDA review as a weight-loss treatment, where it is already used off-label – is facing similar surging demand as Novo Nordisk is with its GLP-1 drugs Wegovy and Ozempic.

Meanwhile, Eli Lilly also recorded pretax in-process R&D charges of close to $3 billion in the quarter primarily related to a number of recent buyouts, including DICE Therapeutics, Versanis Bio and Emergence Therapeutics.

Other results: US revenue: $5.4 billion, up 21%, with a 13% increase in realised prices driven by Mounjaro

Non-US revenue: $4.1 billion, up 64%, largely driven by the sale of rights for the olanzapine portfolio

Key growth products: $5 billion, up 12% Trulicity: $1.7 billion, down 10% and missing expectations for $1.9 billion

Mounjaro: $1.4 billion, up from $187.3 million in the prior year, surpassing estimates of $1.3 billion

Verzenio: $1 billion, up 68%

Taltz: $744.2 million, up 9%

Jardiance: $700.8 million, up 22%, but missing calls for $743 million to $765.2 million

Olumiant: $231.4 million, up 27%

Cyramza: $224.1 million, down 3%

Emgality: $168.5 million, no change

Tyvyt: $115.1 million, up 50%

Humalog: $395.4 million, down 12%

Alimta: $53.5 million, down 55%

Looking ahead:

Eli Lilly continues to expect annual sales of between $33.4 billion and $33.9 billion. Earnings per share for 2023 are now seen between $6.50 and $6.70, down from a prior predicted range of $9.70 and $9.90, due to charges primarily related to the recent acquisitions of DICE, Versanis Bio and Emergence.

What analysts said:

"The top-line strength was driven by the explosive growth of its type 2 diabetes drugs Mounjaro and Jardiance, as well as stellar performance by its breast cancer drug Verzenio," remarked Lee Brown of Third Bridge. However, the analyst suggested that the rest of Eli Lilly's portfolio came in largely below forecasts. "Unfortunately, the majority of Lilly's products failed to meet Street expectations as US pricing – excluding favourable dynamics tied to Mounjaro – declined in the high single digits," Brown said.

Still, Bloomberg Intelligence analysts Sam Fazeli and John Murphy suggested that nothing comes close "to matching Mounjaro's importance to the company's near-term earnings."

Pipeline update:

Meanwhile, an FDA decision of Eli Lilly's filing for the experimental Alzheimer's disease treatment donanemab is now expected early in 2024 rather than this year. The company had initially applied through the FDA's accelerated approval pathway, but US regulators want the drugmaker to submit a traditional drug application with more data on patient exposure.

Chief financial officer Anat Ashkenazi said the FDA asked for an extension on reviewing Eli Lilly's submission, which is what led to the delay. "It's the largest data package we've ever provided," she added.

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