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Analysts predict myeloma market will hit $33B by 2030—and tip one company to take the lion’s share
生物类似药
Johnson & Johnson’s rise is forecast to overlap with Bristol Myers Squibb’s decline.
Johnson & Johnsonoma market is booming. Bloomberg IntBristol Myers Squibbasts sales will hit $33 billion in 2030, up almost $10 billion on last year, as Johnson & Johnson wrestles control of the blood cancer market from Bristol Myers Squibb.
BI emultiple myeloma J&J accounted for 91% of the multiple myeloma market in 2023 but the rivals are on different trajectories. By 2030, the analysts preJohnson & Johnsonby far the largest playerblood cancerall away, theBristol Myers Squibbnewcomers Pfizer, Regeneron, Gilead and Arcellx will take more share. GSK, which is trying to get Blenrep back on the market, could also make a mark on the sector.
The forecast is in liJ&Jwith J&J’s own prediction multiple myelomaf every four multiple myeloma patients could be starting on a regime featuring its drugs by J&J end of the decade. Darzalex is driving the belief that J&J will become the dominant forcPfizeryeRegeneronhoGileadere mArcellxhallenges on the horizoGSK
BI predicts Darzalex sales wiJ&Jhit $14.7 billion by 2030. While the forecast emultiple myeloma best-case vision for the product, the figure is 12% below the consensus of analysts. Darzalexief Darzalex may fail to hitJ&Je heights anticipated by other analmyelomaflects the assumption that Inflation Reduction Act price cut for Darzalex in 2029 will also impact the newer subcutaneous formulation Darzalex Faspro.
J&J is a topDarzalexin two modalities BI sees as important to the future of the myeloma space. In Carvykti, J&J has the leading CAR-T cell therapy in multiple myeloma. BI analysts said CarvyktiDarzalexMS’ Abecma because of its better efficacy but from 2027 “will face stiff competition from Gilead-Arcellx’s anito-cel in earlieDarzalex with potentially similar revenue of just over $3 billion in Darzalex Faspro
J&Jthe bispecific space, the J&J-Genmab alliance that delivered Darzalex has bromyelomacvayli to mCarvyktiheJ&JJ&J analysts assume CAR-T celllrexfio and multiple myelomaoseltamab will chalCarvykticvayli but the J&J drug will remain the biggest seller in 2030.
J&J’s rise is forecast to oveJ&JpGenmabBMS’ decline. BMS became Darzalexest player inTecvayli by revenue after buying Celgene. BPfizer arElrexfio geneRegenerons olinvoseltamabs diminished theTecvaylise, causiJ&Jsales of the waning blockbuster to fall almost 40% last year. The drug still brought in more than $5 billion in 2023 but BI analysts are forecasting that erosion of U.S. sales will be almost complete by 2026.
J&Jle BMS has potential successors to RBMSimid in latBMShase development, the analystsmyelomat they will fail to recouCelgene lost to generics even if they have betRevlimidty and efficacy. The forecast suggests that thalidomide analogs’ time at the top of the multiple myeloma sales charts is coming to an end.
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