Move over, oncology: Obesity, diabetes meds will take over 2030's top drug rankings, Evaluate forecasts

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来源: FiercePharma

Five obesity and diabetes drugs from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are set to dominate the top 10 bestselling drugs by 2030, Evaluate's latest report found.

It’s well known that obesity drugs from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are on a high-flying growth trajectory that doesn’t look to be letting up anytime soon. But, according to a new report from Evaluate, obesity products are set to take over many familiar stalwarts on the world’s top-selling drugs list by the end of the decade.

If last year marked the industry’s “age of uncertainty,” this one is “pharma’s growth boost,” according to Evaluate’s 2024 world preview report. 2023’s report detailed key assumptions, such as the U.S. market’s profitability and the growth that big M&A deals offer, in flux. Now, more “predicable realities” have entered the picture and seem to be here to stay.

Reflecting a new shift, oncology drugs have taken a back seat to the rise of obesity and diabetes meds, specifically from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Lilly’s tirzepatide products Mounjaro and Zepbound, plus Novo’s semaglutide based Ozempic, Wegovy and its newest candidate CagriSema, are expected to be some of the top drugs by 2030 sales with a combined haul of more than $100 billion.

Those five, plus Sanofi and Regeneron’s Dupixent and AbbVie’s Skyrizi, will help drive total worldwide prescription drug sales of some $1.7 trillion. AbbVie, which recently lost exclusivity for top-seller Humira, is set to collect nearly 50% of its 2030 revenues from Skyrizi and its newer Rinvoq, the Evaluate team found.

In the latest rankings for the top 10 drugs in 2030 sales, Merck's Keytruda, which has historically held the No. 1 spot in predicted sales, fell all the way to ninth place. Ozempic, meanwhile, took on No.1, Dupixent No.2 and Mounjaro No.3. Importantly, Keytruda’s key patent lets up in 2028, another factor that impacted the rankings as generics will likely put a damper on its 2030 sales.

Back in 2022, Evaluate noted the growing focus on obesity drugs and predicted 2028 sales of the meds combined to hit $11 billion. Merck’s oncology superstar Keytruda was expected to top the list of the bestselling products of 2028, followed by Bristol Myers Squibb’s Opdivo and Dupixent. Ozempic did make the list as well, but oncology was said to be the top therapy area by far.

2023’s report held largely similar predictions, although Dupixent climbed to No. 2 and Ozempic nabbed the third spot.

In the obesity realm, Wegovy and Zepbound are “just the start,” according to Evaluate. The two meds collected less than $5 billion in sales last year, a tiny portion of the $130 billion predicted for the overall GLP-1 market by 2030. New contenders are expected to steal some market share by the end of the decade, such as Novo’s developing CargriSema or Lilly’s oral GLP-1 orforglipron, plus products from other drugmakers like AstraZeneca and Amgen.

Novo and Lilly made the very end of last year’s forecast for top 10 drugmakers by 2028. The latest rankings catapult the two drugmakers up to the top of the heap at No.1 (Novo) and No.2 (Lilly), with AbbVie close behind at No.3. However, the rivals may trade places with continued supply issues impacting both, Evaluate noted.

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