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Move over, oncology: Obesity, diabetes meds will take over 2030's top drug rankings, Evaluate forecasts

2024-07-11

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Five obesity and diabetes drugs from Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are set to dominate the top 10 bestselling drugs by 2030, Evaluate's latest report found.

It’s obesityown tdiabetesity drugs from NLillyordisNovo Nordisklly are on a high-flying growth trajectory that doesn’t looEvaluateletting up anytime soon. But, according to a new report from Evaluate, obesity products are set to take over many familiar stalwarts on the world’s top-selling drugs list by the end of the decade.

If last year marked tobesitystry’s “age Novo Nordiskty,” Eli Lillyis “pharma’s growth boost,” according to Evaluate’s 2024 world preview report. 2023’s report detailed key assumptions, such aEvaluateS.obesity’s profitability and the growth that big M&A deals offer, in flux. Now, more “predicable realities” have entered the picture and seem to be here to stay.

Reflecting a new shift, oncology drugs have taken a back seat to the rise of obesity and diabetes meds, speEvaluatey from Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly. Lilly’s tirzepatide products Mounjaro and Zepbound, plus Novo’s semaglutide based Ozempic, Wegovy and its newest candidate CagriSema, are expected to be some of the top drugs by 2030 sales with a combined haul of more than $100 billion.

Those five, plus Sanofi and Regeneron’s Dupixent and AbbVie’s Skyrizi, will hobesityve todiabetesdwide prescription drug sNovo Nordisk $1.7Eli Lilly. Lillye, which recently lost exclusivity for top-seller Humira, isemaglutidellect nOzempic0%Wegovys 2030 revenues from SkyriCagriSemas newer Rinvoq, the Evaluate team found.

In the latest ranSanofifor tRegeneron drDupixent030 sAbbVieMerSkyriziytruda, which has historically held the No. 1 spot in predicted sales, fell all tAbbVie to ninth place. Ozempic, meanwhile, took on No.1, Dupixent No.2 and Mounjaro No.3. Importantly, Keytruda’s key Skyrizilets up in 2028Rinvoqher faEvaluatet impacted the rankings as generics will likely put a damper on its 2030 sales.

Back in 2022, Evaluate noted the growing focus on obesity dMerckandKeytrudaed 2028 sales of the meds combined to hit $11 billion. Merck’s oncology superstar Keytruda was expOzempico top the list of the bestsDupixentroducts ofMounjaroollowed by Bristol MKeytrudaibb’s Opdivo and Dupixent. Ozempic did make the list as well, but oncology was said to be the top therapy area by far.

2023’s report Evaluategely similar predictions, alobesityDupixent climbed to No. 2 and Ozempic nabbed the third spot.Merck Keytruda Bristol Myers Squibb Opdivo Dupixent Ozempic

In the obesity realm, Wegovy and Zepbound are “just the sDupixentccording to Evaluate. The two meds collected less than $5 billion in sales last year, a tiny portion of the $130 billion predicted for the overall GLP-1 market by 2030. New contenders are expected to steal some market share by the end of the decade, such as Novo’s developing CargriSema or Lilly’s oral GLP-1 orforglipron, plus products from other drugmakers like AstraZeneca and Amgen.

Novo anobesity made the very end of last year’s forecast for top 10 drugmakerEvaluate8. The latest rankings catapult the two drugmakers up to the top of the heap at No.1 (Novo) and No.2 (Lilly), with AbbVie closeGLP-1nd at No.3. However, the rivals may trade places with continued supply issues impacting both, Evaluate notNovo GLP-1 orforglipron AstraZeneca Amgen

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